Thursday, June 3, 2010

Media Criticism #3

I read James Surowiecki’s article “The Age of Political Risk” on The Financial Page in the May 24th edition of The New Yorker. As usual I found the piece timely, informative, and accessible. I was taken aback, however, by a statement made in the fourth paragraph. Surowiecki says, “Markets work best when there’s lots of information available and a historical track record to go on; they excel at predicting things like horse races….”

If only this were true. After spending some years of my professional life teasing stories out of data, I took an interest in horse racing under just that assumption. I thought that with the proper analytical framework, the rich mine of data available in The Daily Racing Form and other sources would yield at least a modest return on investment (ROI).

As I learned more about horse racing, I came to find that even the best handicappers (those who study past performances, pedigree, track biases, etc.) correctly predict the outcome only about forty percent of the time. If by “markets” Surowiecki means the run of horseplayers generally, the answer is even more dismal. The preference of the “market” of parimutuel bettors is displayed by the final odds on the various horses in a race, with the lowest odds attached to the “favorite.” Historically “favorites” have won only about one-third of the time. More disheartening, flat bets on all favorites will inevitably produce a negative ROI over time.

In his blog entry of February 25, 2010, Steven Crist, Publisher of The Daily Racing Form wrote “…it turns out that the ancient rule of thumb that favorites win one-third of all races may need a longer thumb: In 2009, favorites in fact won 36.66 percent of the 55,984 thoroughbred races run in the United States and Canada.” Crist looked at 71 racetracks where the percentage of winning favorites ranged from a high of 42.73% to a low of 25.91%. While he did not report on ROI, I strongly suspect that it was negative in all cases of flat bets on favorites.

I would love to be found wrong, as would many who share my enthusiasm and frustration with handicapping. I invite Mr.Surowiecki to join me (my treat) to an afternoon at the racetrack of his choice. Saratoga is nice, and I have heard many good things about Del Mar, as well.

Wednesday, May 5, 2010

Media Criticism #2

Followers of this blog may remember that I criticized the Boston Globe story on Michael Gill some weeks ago. My major critique then was that facts were very hard to find. I read the two horse racing stories in the May 1, 2010 Globe, and have a different and more troubling concern. Instead of errors of omission, there are significant errors of commission.

In the story captioned "Rain Could Rule..." The Globe in graph 14 says that the last horse to win the Kentucky Derby from an outside post was Ferdinand in 1986. It goes on to say that the last horse to win from the #20 position was War Admiral in 1937. This is wrong on both counts. The last horse to win from #20, which in that case was the outside post, was Big Brown. This happened only two years ago.

In the piece captioned "Derby Notebook", The Globe makes another mistake that could have been avoided. The rival to Rachel Alexandra in graph 2 was Zardana, not "Zardania." I was about to give this a pass as a typo until I got to graph 3, where the mistake is repeated.

I wrote to Joe Sullivan, the Globe Sports Editor, on the day the stories appeared. I have not gotten any response, but in fairness, they did get the facts straight in a story the next day.

Tuesday, April 6, 2010

The Wood Memorial










At Aqueduct for the Wood Memorial – April 3, 2010

Track listed as “Fast”. Visible sheen on the outside edge. So much steam rising from the harrowed portion that you could not see the first turn from the grandstand at 1:30.

Steady head wind for stretch runners all day.

By the time of The Wood Memorial you could see your breath.

The best seats in the house, Section 3-J were available all day. For Free. Free Parking! Aqueduct/NYRA could only attract about 8,500 people to this. The second tier of the sport. In the largest metro area in the country.

Eskendereya – looked slow in the paddock. Had two handlers, but no seeming need. Not snappy.

As I watched the post parade, a guy came up to me and wanted to talk. Said he had NEVER seen anyone in a G1 with front wraps. WHAT was going on with Eskendereya? He could only remember one time, in the Belmont,….

I tried to ignore him and he left me kind of rudely. Eskendereya wins by a ton. (9+ lengths) Tried to find the guy but no luck.

Reminds me that the track exceeds even the prison yard for the intensity of the baloney being served. Everyone is a liar. Everyone is deceiving or self-deceiving, or both.


“I would’a had that,but….”

“I had that one, I just didn’t bet him.”

“I had that one last time, remember, I crushed it.”

“Johnny on the rail!! Johnny on the rail!!”

The difference here is, New Yorkers don’t just have opinions, they have OPINIONS. Add 100% baloney to in-your-face arrogance and you get a long afternoon.

Thursday, March 18, 2010

Media Criticism

Stan Grossfeld wrote two pieces about thoroughbred owner Michael Gill in The Boston Globe on March 2.

http://www.boston.com/sports/other_sports/horse_racing/articles/2010/03/02/a_run_for_his_money/

I read the story and sidebar and thought that others, who don’t see The Globe, might be interested. I shared the on-line version with a group of racing fans and handicappers at a blog I contribute to. The reaction was an almost deafening silence.

This got me thinking. Was the information so “old hat” to these people they did not bother to read or react? Were the charges and countercharges so commonplace in racing that no-one cared any more? It caused me to go back and re-read the piece. I think I know why some at least did not seem to care. It is just not very good journalism.

The article and the sidebar take up a very large chunk of real estate in The Globe, roughly 1 ½ pages out of a total of 7 in the Sports section that day or about 20 % of the entire news hole for the section. I calculated about 176 column inches devoted to the text and accompanying photos. And yet the article really came to no useful conclusion, nor did it allow the reader to draw a conclusion. What was the reader to take away? I think the evidence is clear that the majority of The Globe’s sports readers care very little about thoroughbred racing. If more cared, and they cared more passionately, The Globe would provide better coverage. This makes the sheer size of this particular piece more striking and leads to higher expectations.

What the reader gets is a very long list of accusations and counter accusations, with very little in the way of facts, and almost no sense of real pursuit of the story by The Globe. The story seems to be limited to a series of statements about “controversies.” Does The Globe routinely devote so much space to people’s interest in controversy? Would the science editors devote so much attention to “teaching the controversy” about Darwinism? Is it newsworthy in itself that not everyone at the racetrack is a choirboy? Dog bites man.

This problem begins to be illustrated by the two photo captions on the first page – an assertion by an owner at Penn National and a counter-assertion by Gill. Gill says he has been accused of a “crime” but The Globe does very little to clarify.

The lead paragraph attempts to set a context of threat and mystery, but does not follow up. Did Gill show the Globe the “multiple death threats?” Did Gill share these with law enforcement? The reader is in the dark.

The events surrounding the death of Casual Comfort and the jockeys’ action at Penn National are described, but again, the story is more concerned with “controversy” than fact-finding. And so we begin with the back and forth.

Penn National says 10 horses down.
Gill says six. Well, which is it?

Gill says Penn National has a bad surface.
Penn National says they routinely maintain it. Well, which is it?

Gill says he will sell out.
The Globe says he has said this before. Conclusion?

Jockey Sosa says Gill doesn’t care.
Gill “scoffs .” Conclusion?

Gill says his breakdown percentage is low.
Penn National says it is high. Well, which is it?

Ex-trainer Ferris asserts bad “horsemanship.”
Gill says he doesn’t remember her. What should the reader think? This is literally she said/he said.

Maggi Moss challenges Gill to document his actions with retired racehorses.
Gill “slaps a thick pile of 2009 receipts… .”
Did The Globe even look at the “receipts,” let alone follow up? The reader has no idea.

Mike Catalano “believes” Gill is honest.
Does The Globe know or tell the reader that Mike Catalano (Jr.) once worked for Gill?
Readers might want to know that Catalano (Jr.) was called to account by the Delaware Thoroughbred Racing Commission (October 21, 2008) for having two of his horses break down on the same day.

Gill says he sued Delaware for antitrust, and that Delaware settled.
Did this happen? Did The Globe follow up? Guess we will never know.

PA humane police say Gill’s farm operation is “perfect.”
The Globe introduces his pending divorce.
Is this balance for balance’s sake?

Massachusetts has “findings of fact” against his mortgage business.
Gill says “not….fraud.”
Is this the same thing?

The Globe reports a 2001 drug violation at Suffolk Downs.
Gill claims trainer’s responsibility.
How was this resolved? Globe readers are still looking to find out.

In the sidebar on Casual Comfort, we read,
“Gill …. declared persona non grata at six racetracks”
Which ones? When? On what grounds? We are still in the dark.

“He claims…. , critics claim.” No attempt to resolve competing claims.

While I am sure that The Globe considers its readers to be sophisticated and analytical enough to draw conclusions from facts, there are precious few facts in the 176 column inches devoted to horse racing and Michael Gill. Many more are to be found at the website below.
http://www.paulickreport.com/blog/gills-gang-of-misfits/

Ultimately, I think The Globe fails its readers by failing to provide a point of view. Is this an article about a businessman who is afraid for his family because of multiple death threats, or merely a story about “horseplay” at the racetrack?

Monday, February 22, 2010

Looking Forward

A version of this post has also appeared in the Comments section of Dan Illman's blog at the Daily Racing Form.

Get Ready Sports Fans

Now that the Winter Olympics are over and we can start to think about the upcoming spring and summer sports season, a little comparison of two venerable Boston institutions may be in order. Both the Red Sox of Fenway Park and the ponies/jockeys from Suffolk Downs are in their winter quarters in Florida. The Sox are in Fort Myers (in Lee County, foreclosure capital of the USA) and some of the Suffolk crowd is at Tampa Bay Downs (Home of the Manatee Stakes).

Let’s see how the facilities stack up:

Opening Day

Fenway Park– April 4 (Easter Sunday)

Suffolk Downs- May 1 (May Day)

Advantage - If you really need an excuse not to help with the dishes – Fenway.

History

Fenway Park - Opened in 1912, and is the oldest active venue in professional sports.

Suffolk Downs - Opened in July of 1935 with the first concrete grandstand in America.

Advantage – Fenway

Capacity

Fenway Park - Listed at 37,400, though this may underestimate the true numbers. Every game since May 15, 2003 has sold out.

Suffolk Downs - High single-day attendance listed at 52,726 (August 10, 1935). Last sell-out hard to determine since they don’t even use the turnstiles most days.

Advantage – Suffolk, if you actually want to just go to a sporting event.

Weird Coincidence

Fenway Park - Red Sox once owned by former Sox trainer, Buddy Leroux

Suffolk Downs - Suffolk Downs once owned by former Sox trainer, Buddy Leroux

Advantage – Toss-up

What the Get-A-Lifers do in the off-season

Fenway Park - The Hot Stove League and WEEI.

Suffolk Downs - Simulcasting from Aqueduct and Tampa.

Advantage – Toss-up

Retirement Options for Athletes

Fenway Park - Appearing at Scott Brown’s victory party and opening sports bars.

Suffolk Downs - Retiring to stud.

Advantage – Suffolk

What you will hear from the drunks in the cheap seats

Fenway Park - “Wakefield you s***”

Suffolk Downs - “Bocachica you s***”

Advantage – Toss-up. Neither has any connection with reality.

Announcer

Fenway Park -Carl Beane

Suffolk Downs - T. D. Thornton

Advantage – Suffolk. Thornton has one of the toughest jobs in sports, and Beane is no Sherm Feller.

The Crowd

Fenway Park - Well-heeled suburbanites from all over New England, sprinkled with very attractive college girls.

Suffolk Downs - Guys dodging work, guys who never worked, excitable Rastas, elderly Chinese couples, college guys learning to smoke cigars

Advantage – Fenway by a nose

Convenience

Fenway Park - Has a T stop named after it. Average parking cost (2009) $27.00.

Suffolk Downs - Has a T stop named after it. General Parking is free.

Advantage – Fenway by T, Suffolk by car – Toss-up.

Chance of some competitors using banned performance-enhancing drugs

Fenway Park - Greater than zero.

Suffolk Downs - Greater than zero.

Advantage – Toss-up

Music

Fenway Park - Sir Paul McCartney played to record-setting crowds August 5 and 6, 2009.

Cheapest ticket was $69.

Suffolk Downs - Paul McCartney and three guys who needed haircuts played to 25,000 on August 18, 1966. Cheapest ticket was $4.75

Advantage – Suffolk

Cost

Fenway Park -The well-respected 2009 TMR Fan Cost Index estimated the cost of a family trip for four (2 adult tickets, 2 child tickets, 2 small draft beers, 4 small sodas, 4 hot dogs, parking for one car, 2 programs and two ball caps).

Total - $326.45.

Suffolk Downs - 4 tickets – Maximum of $8. No charge on most days. Sit anywhere you want. OK to smoke outside. 2 (16 oz.) draft beers - $ 9.50, 4 sodas - $9, 4 hot dogs - $11, Parking – free, 2 programs - $4, 2 souvenir caps - $30 (est.)

Total - $71.50

Advantage – Suffolk by $254.95

Chance of your fellow patrons pitching in to reward your knowledge of the game with the price of a nice dinner and a limo ride home.

Fenway Park - Zero

Suffolk Downs - Not zero. This could actually happen. Pari-mutuel wagering really does work this way - for the winners.

Advantage – Suffolk

Final Score

Fenway Park– 3

Suffolk Downs – 6

Toss-ups – 5

Have fun whatever you decide!




Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Weekend Getaway Photos January 30 and 31, 2010 (full story below)


Jim from New Hampshire enjoying the sun at Gulfstream.





What the REAL Journalists were wearing

Julien Leparoux up on Hollywood Left before the 5th on Saturday


Angel's Cove leads the pack toward the first turn in the 3rd on Saturday. Winner Dreamed to Dream (6) paid $167.60. To other investors.
Reminds me of horses from classical Greek vases
(L-R) Angel Cordero, Jr., Todd Pletcher, and John Velazquez



Before the first race at Hialeah on Sunday
The Famous Flamingoes (old Doo Wop group?)


The back side of the Hialeah grandstand (closed)

The future card room at Hialeah - formerly The Flamingo Pavilion

Weekend Getaway 2010

I had worked pretty hard to get ready for the weekend. Lots of paper handicapping since the Gulfstream meet opened on January 3. Reviewed the charts for almost all the races on each card. Tried to see who was hot and how the track was playing. Fat lot of good it did me. I also wasted some time looking at the three SA races in the “Sunshine Millions”. There was no Pick Six equivalent I could find, so I wound up passing them all. I am less interested than ever now in the CA synthetic surfaces. Seems like a permanent split is developing between those horses and the dirt types. Maybe if I get to Woodbine in the spring I will pay more attention.

I had set up (I hoped) an arrangement to get a press credential through Caton Bredar, the “Executive Producer” of GP’s New Media Development office or some such. Had a hard time figuring out who to talk to. GP website is pretty poor in general and very bad about contacts for people. This might be by design, given the financial troubles Magna seems to be in. No follow up people included at the end of the GP press releases even. So I Googled GP press releases and found a guy at the Ft. Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel named Nick Sortal who seemed to be following things at GP. I sent him a cold email asking who he knew. He gave me Randy Abraham at GP who gave me Caton Bredar.

I figured that everyone at GP used the same email address format and sent Caton an email asking for a credential. She very graciously called me on the phone, but my cell was off and I missed it. I emailed her back using the same pitch that was somewhat successful last summer at Belmont with Ashley Herriman and Dan Silver of NYRA. She got back to me and said to drop by when I was in town. This felt great.

When I arrived at the track on Saturday, I could see that most of the “Village” has been completed. Now the place looks just like any other moderately upscale So. Florida shopping mall. You are much more likely to see The Container Store and Crate and Barrel, than you are to notice the racetrack grandstand. I had bought a ($30!) ticket to sit in the stands, since I did not know if my approach as a journalist was going to work, and I knew from experience that I need a place to park my bones, even if I do a lot of walking around. So I picked up my ticket at Will Call and asked for the Media Office. It is located behind an unmarked door at the back end of the very dark simulcasting theater. A pleasant and easygoing guy named Travis (Stone as it turns out) said that Caton was doing her radio show and asked if he could help. I told him she asked me to drop by so she could hook me up with a credential. He obliged with a limited access pass for the season. I asked him about the press box and he gave me some loose directions. Travis also said that it would be full that day and they would be using an overflow room next door. He said to make myself comfortable.

Turns out, the “press box” at GP is one of the luxury suites on the 3rd floor. You take the elevator up and go through Christine Lee’s restaurant, an Asian/steakhouse place where a couple can get a $52 plate of sushi or a $75 porterhouse. Not with my winnings.

You need to walk through the restaurant and down a long corridor lined with sconces, past dark wood doors with the names of the VIP’s next to them, to get to the box. Inside, the room is small and rectangular, not much exposure directly onto the track. It is also pretty well down the straightaway headed for the first turn, well past the finish line. It does have sliding glass doors leading to an outside balcony. Some other guys were there, but I did not want to risk embarrassing myself by saying anything. I did not stay long, since whatever story I was going to find would be down among the people and the ponies, not up in the air with a bunch of guys doing a job I don’t really understand.

Contrast this with the other two pressboxes I have been in, both in the past year. First was the one at Belmont last July. You take a (union operator attended) elevator up to a cheaply paneled hallway which leads to some very downscale offices where the track media people work. At the end of the hall is the pressbox. Very long exposure to the track, lots of desks along the window, but definitely a place that has seen better days. Later in the season, my old high school acquaintance Rich Fahey took Bill Burke and me into the box at Suffolk Downs. You walk up to the top level of the grandstand, go in a small door, walk down a very dark service corridor, then across a flimsy catwalk over the stands. The pressbox is about as attractive and comfortable as the maintenance office at Cabrini-Green, and was probably cleaned as recently.

So I went downstairs and wandered around. I had done my handicapping and didn’t want to overthink it. The track itself is mostly unchanged from last year. The simulcast theater, the “casino” opposite, the bar in the middle, and the very nice walking ring with seating on all sides. One feature at Gulfstream that might not be found elsewhere (Del Mar?) is a “beach”. As you approach the first turn there is an area to watch the races that is fitted out like a small resort beach. Tiki huts, umbrellas, a bar, small stage with amplifiers, big lounge chairs, and what I can only call beds, complete with privacy drapes. Yes, beds.

Magna has installed a new inner turf track this year. This should allow for more turf races and does represent something of an investment in the plant. Otherwise things feel very familiar. Everything (like all of South Florida) smells like one big Cohiba. The crowd fills in slowly as the afternoon goes on. Lots of retirees, lots of college kids. Not so many obnoxious Yankee fans as I remember. “Product models” in very short dresses and very big hats handing out GP freebies. This is a big race day, so some folks are dressed up. The most frequent look among females under 60 is “I know I look like a stripper, but I’m really not.” The crowd is still pretty thin approaching the fifth race and there is more activity away from the track than on the apron. The stands (for which you have to pay) and Christine Lee’s remain pretty empty all day.

My handicapping stinks and my wagering strategy is worse. A small snowman of torn-up tickets is growing around my ankles. Vince Wilfork of the Patriots shows up in the Winners Circle with Caton, ostensibly to hand out a trophy. I know better – he has been riding my selections. I drift back towards the fancy walking ring and the seats surrounding it. You get a very good view of the horses and jockeys, and get to see some celebrity trainers like Todd Pletcher. I spy an owner’s wife wearing a very stylish jacket designed to look like jockey’s silks. It’s like everyone at the track has Jack Nicholson’s or Spike Lee’s seats at the basketball game, except you could smoke a cigar if you felt like it. Why don’t more people go to the track?

It looks to me like if you can afford a stakes-level racehorse you can also afford some really high quality plastic surgery for your trophy wife.

I review my handicapping for the last few races, the big ones worth hundreds of thousands in purses. As I begin to walk away, a guy asks me who I am to be taking the card so seriously. I tell him I am a freelancer looking for stories and trying to have fun at the same time. I ask to take his picture. He has what would be a handlebar moustache if the bicycle belonged to King Kong. His name is Jim and he is from NH. We wish each other luck and I wander back to the rail.

Now standing at the rail at the finish line is the exact equivalent of courtside seats to the Celtics. The difference (besides that noted above) is that it costs exactly nothing. Free parking and free admission every day at GP. Nine or ten professional sporting events featuring the stars of the sport. Outdoors in the sun. $1 draft beers. Sometimes you are standing right next to the owners of the horses. Imagine watching the game with George Steinbrenner, Mario Lemieux, or Steve Pagliuca. What’s not to love?

The crowd is bigger now that the feature races are being run and it surges like the tide back and forth between the walking ring and the rail, as races are run and new entrants parade around. The schedule seems very tight, maybe to accommodate the SA races. I hit one exacta that does not even pay for the cost of the wagers I make on that race. My ROI for the day requires the use of negative infinity.

Next day is Sunday and I try for the doubleheader. Hialeah and GP. Hialeah has just reopened after being shut down for years. I read that the owner has exercised some small loophole in the law and is running quarterhorses as his ticket to opening a gambling facility at the track. Post times are conflicting, but I am sure I can see something at each.

Now I had never been to Hialeah, even though most people I talk to think it is the only racetrack in Florida. They remember seeing, or seeing photos of, the famous flamingos. The pictures I have seen make the track look pretty beat. Not nearly as beat however as the surrounding neighborhood. If you are a fan of junkyards, West 79th Street in Miami is the place for you. Also a good spot to pick up some souse or curried goat to take home.

The track has a nice palm-lined entry drive and is served by public transportation, Miami’s MetroRail. Once you park (again free parking and free admission) the sense of decay sets in. Not a creepy decay, but the familiar South Florida decay. Miami is a sub-tropical jungle, subject to torrents of rain and occasional direct hits by hurricanes. “We got the old and the mold.” as a guy once told me. It has a comforting “Old Florida” feel. I think I see GP’s future, especially since the future of all racing is dimming rapidly.

As I go through the turnstile (at least they have the sense to count the patrons) I see lots more cowboy hats and lots more families than yesterday at GP. Seems like a nice day out for families and old folks alike. The facility is still mostly shuttered. There is elevated seating and an apron area along the track past the finish line and some very modest concessions on the ground level. The main grandstand is cordoned off. The dining rooms are closed. The press box is very temporary looking. The HIALEAH sign under the electronic toteboard turns out to have been painted on the side of an empty trailer. A friendly lady sees me taking pictures and suggests I go around to the back of the building for better photos of the decay. She could not be more correct. I snap a photo of some very quiet and very far off flamingos before I go.

Out back is the working part of the track – the jockeys’ room, the stables, the walking ring. It also has a small playground, some disused decorative fountains, and the future home of Hialeah gaming, the partially caved in Flamingo Pavilion. The signs say opening in 2010. Don’t hold your breath. I watch the first race (12 seconds long!), just to say I have been to the races at Hialeah, and head up 95 to Hallandale Beach Boulevard.

Now I had been thinking that 79th Street was in a very bad way and it is. When I began to look closer at Hallandale Beach Blvd. I could see that, in its way, things were not much better. Lots of vacant buildings along here too.

I dropped into the media offices and said hi to Travis. Caton was in her office. I thanked her for her hospitality and we chatted a little bit about Suffolk Downs. Turns out her grandfather, Ted Atkinson, used to ride there and she has done some MassCaps for ESPN. Small world. She said I was welcome to go into the paddock/walking ring if I wanted. I had been motioned into the winner’s circle yesterday by one of the security staff. She had seen the credential around my neck and the camera in my hand. I declined both. I did not want to do something stupid and wear out my welcome. Went back to the press suite and pinched myself to make sure I was not dreaming.

Pretty fair weekend. Three racecards at two different tracks, a press credential, some face time, and three dips in the ocean.